| A Look at Some Motorcycle Export Numbers | | Print | |
| Written by Kenn Stamp | ||||
| Tuesday, 08 February 2011 16:28 | ||||
  A Look at Some Motorcycle Export NumbersIt seems that every time you turn on the TV, or radio, or go to your favorite website you hear a different story about the state of the economy than the last time you checked; “It appears the economic slump is over as retail sales have shown a marked increase over last year.” Two days later you hear; “The economic recession continues as 50 billion people are laid off from XYZ Corporation which is the largest supplier of PDQ in the world”. I don’t go to many theme parks or carnivals as rides that go round and round make me sick and the all the circular talk about the economy is doing the same. As I write this news has gone out that manufacturing numbers from the big 4 Japanese motorcycle companies has increased over last year – but Japan’s domestic sales of motorcycles has once again decreased. This means that they are sending their bikes elsewhere which begs the question, where? Is it Europe? North America? China? Some small island in the middle of the Pacific Ocean? Is Japan creating artificial reefs as a home for the endangered Nassau Grouper? Is there really cause to celebrate a tiny increase in the manufacturing of goods? Nothing says “facts” like hard numbers and no where can you get easier access to those numbers (if you know the secret password and handshake) than from JAMA (Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association). So let’s take a look, shall we? First off some ground rules; 1) I will only look at motorcycles of 250cc or greater 2) I am only interested in motorcycles sold in North America and Europe (not just the EU nations) 3) I will limit myself to 2 cups of coffee while I write this 4) I will never eat from Billy Bob’s Burrito Barn and Feed Store ever again. First let’s look at total export numbers (percentage of difference from previous year's number in parentheses): Europe ...................................North America Jan. 2006 - Dec. 2006.............................409,405 (103.46%)...................467,847 (108.91%) Jan. 2007 - Dec. 2007.............................420,601 (102.73%)...................359,212 (76.77%) Jan. 2008 - Dec. 2008.............................326,176 (77.54%).....................290,193 (80.78%) Jan. 2009 - Dec. 2009.............................186,115 (57.05%).....................143,215 (49.35%) Jan. 2010 - Dec. 2010.............................201,921 (108.49%).....................75,895 (52.99%) As you can see from the table, the market in North America has slumped and as of last year it hasn’t picked back up again – overall. But maybe, if we look at a month by month breakdown of the past year we’ll find some hope. Breakdown by month for 2010 (I’m including 2006 numbers in parentheses just for comparison’s sake): Europe......................North America Jan..........17,871 (47,654)..........6,967 (38,077) Feb..........25,777 (44,774)........13,060 (44,816) Mar..........25,579 (49,893)..........8,208 (42,479) Apr..........25,792 (45,393)..........5,365 (44,985) May.........18,827 (22,361)..........3,810 (29,239) June.......16,611 (25,472)..........2,801 (34,345) July.........10,452 (21,543)..........2,968 (33,784) Aug.........11,891 (15,004)..........3,644 (28,314) Sept........10,159 (24,494)..........5,757 (37,253) Oct..........11,695 (29,764)..........6,541 (48,672) Nov.........12,278 (30,386)..........9,938 (46,071) Dec.........15,489 (52,667)..........6,836 (39,812) Looking at those numbers we can see a pretty consistent increase in export numbers for Europe from September to December in 2010; of course this is also mirrored in the numbers from 2006 so may be more of a seasonal trend than an actual overall increase. Looking at the North American market shows a steady increase from June to Nov 2006 with a decline in numbers in December. Now you are probably asking yourself the question “what about 2009 compared with 2010?” and you would be right to do so. Has there been a marked increase between those years? We can see that overall 2010 has seen less bikes imported to North America than 2009, but the latter half of 2010 (July – Dec.) saw a 129.86% increase over that same time period in 2009. Well this is great news right? Depends on how excited you want to be about 8,207 more bikes being imported over a 6 month period. Obviously we have seen some increases in imports to the North American market which should mean that sales of new motorcycles are increasing – the question is are they increasing fast enough. This past year has seen motorcycle dealerships close (even once popular and prosperous ones) due to needs being more important than wants. Not only does a dealership closure affect the employees working there but also the amount of bikes imported into the country. I would also submit that a local dealership closing diminishes awareness of motorcycling in the community as a serious and viable form of transportation and relegates it to the level of a pastime or hobby – in some people’s eyes. I don’t really have any answers on how to fix the economy or the flagging motorcycle sales and import/export numbers – then again I’m not an economist. What is really scary is that none of the economists know what will fix it either. What do you, our readers, think? Note: Because I am a curious type of fellow, I wondered what China was doing during this same time period so I looked. In 2006 Japan exported, and I kid you not, 51 over 250cc motorcycles to China. In 2007 = 21 bikes, 2008 = Zero, 2009 = 6, 2010 = 6. Obviously China isn’t interested in importing Japanese motorcycles. 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Mark Bandfield
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numb3rs I am one of those rare breed of animal that lives in the northrn part of the country (45th parallel) and rides year round (1K CBR). Yes, I own a truck for "family use", but I commute and run errands via 2-wheels. When I look at the last set of figures that really stands out are the numbers from the "normal riding season" of April-September for 2010: 5,365; 3,810; 2,801; 2,968; 3,644; and 5,757. The largest sums are book-end at April and September with June and July being the lowest for the entire year. This would suggest that people are looking for the greatest discounts and forgoing the purchase of a new bike at the peak of the riding season. The largst sales of the year were in February and November - usually the opposite of what would be expected. Again, this suggests people looking for end-of-the-year bargins. This would also translate into the lowest profit margins for the dealers. And North American sales are paltry compared to Europe. Again, this is not the traditional norm. This tells us two possiblities: 1) Europe really is coming out of the Recession, whilst the U.S. is stagnent at best. 2) Europe promotes two-wheeled travel as a viable alternative form of transportation for various reasons (which I won't explore). The U.S. Departments of Transportation, Energy, and Interior have not seen fit to educate the American public on the virtues of motorcycles as transportation and not merely recreation. I would suggest that those persons who are concerned about the future of motorcycling in the U.S. contact their Congressional delagates, and Secretaries of the above mentioned Cabinet departments and encourage a campaign to elucidate said authorities, and more so the American buying public, be it for economic, ecologic, or anthropogenic reasons. Riding on two wheels makes sense, and is a whole lot more enjoyable than life within four wheeled cages. |
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